A Surviving Facts Blog
We finally took a much overdue vacation. My husband and I joined dear friends, a couple, to tour the wineries of New York’s Finger Lakes region, about four hours northwest of New York City. The region bursts with fantastic wineries, innovative, excellent restaurants and arts and crafts.
We love the couple we traveled with. When we are together, we laugh constantly. I joke my husband and I are their “wild friends.” We always have a raucous good time.
One issue separates us, however: my husband and I do not support the current administration and MAGA; our friends voted for Trump. Usually, we keep politics out of our interactions. We know our friends are good people and that our difference in political perspective doesn’t divide us. On this vacation, politics did sneak up every once in a while- one night after dinner as we relaxed in the hot tub and one at a winery when the owner pressed for discussion.
I initiated the hot tub conversation. It didn’t compete with the bubbles massaging our shoulders and backs. The winery conversation, however, almost escalated. My husband and my friend (the wife) smartly avoided the discussion. My friend’s husband and I, however, dug in with the winery owner. To be fair, the owner was curious. She wanted to know what we thought about current activities. She was concerned about deportations of American citizens and lack of due process.
This conversation underscored some finer points of difference between Trump supporters and critics. Admittedly, I can fall into black and white thinking on these issues. But I love my friends and knowing them, I know that polarized thinking doesn’t apply. These are smart individuals. I’ve seen no signs of overt racism (we all have unconscious bias, I believe), nor have I seen a lack of empathy or social understanding. But, certain political tenets differentiate our thinking. (Note to my friends: not all of my observations below relate to you. :-))
Trickle Down or Up?
In some ways, this is a glass half full or half empty difference. Trickle down economics, also known as supply side economics- a theory that tax cuts and other beneficial policies for corporations and the wealthy/top 1% will stimulate economic growth and benefit everyone- underpins the conservative mindset. My friend has more trust in the goodwill of high earners and corporations than I do. He believes they provide jobs to Americans. If we tax them more, they will leave our country and take the jobs and economic benefits with them.
Many studies have shown that trickle down economics has not delivered promised results. This economic theory relies on inherent positive actions by high earners- that by earning more, these individuals will engage in more economic activity supporting the collective good. Cutting the top tax rate is supposed to lead to economic growth, income growth, wage growth and job creation. It’s a nice idea, in theory.
However, looking at the data of these areas has shown that tax cuts historically achieved the opposite result. Let’s take economic growth. After the Reagan tax cuts of the eighties, the economy briefly spiked, followed by a significant decline and then leveling out at a lower level than before the tax cuts. This data is based on looking at GDP growth compared to tax rates over many decades. Studies by the London School of Economics and International Monetary Fund, among many others, have found that evidence doesn’t support the theory’s assumption. In fact, the IMF found the opposite, that increasing the income share of the poor and middle class increases economic growth while increasing the income share of the top 20% lowers it.
The RAND thinktank, which does no lobbying and receives funding from diverse sources, also found that the trickle down approach has redistributed wealth from the bottom 90% to the top 1%. Decades of this approach have widened the gap between the rich and the middle class and poor.
I didn’t have this data at hand when my friend and I discussed, though I knew research was showing that trickle down hasn’t worked. My friend may see my sources as too left leaning. And he may well be right. However, these sources are the ones that gathered and charted the objective economic data. In trying to resolve this challenge point, I fell down the hole of a Reddit thread called AskConservatives. The thread debated the effectiveness of supply side economics based on supply and demand- basic economic theory. Both conservative and progressive participants engaged. The biggest difference I saw over and over again is “belief.” The conservatives said over and over again, “we believe in supply side economics”- a direct quote- as if this belief is enough to validate the theory. Not once was this “belief” supported by economic data. The demand-side commenters, however, provided data points.
This belief in a theory is something I heard from my friend. The Republicans have done an excellent job at pushing forward a belief that cannot be penetrated even when presented with evidence. That evidence is dismissed as biased, even when its objective data captured historically. I could find no conservative source that cited evidence. The Cato Institute, a conservative think tank, purports that supply side is good for the economy. Yet, the article is theoretical rather than supported by historical data. I’ll continue to look.
This is the very definition of successful policy entrenchment. Theoretically, supply side makes sense. Actually, it doesn’t work. Why? Because it depends on the goodwill of the top percenters. With increased wealth, these companies and people may initially reinvest for growth- the spike we saw after the Reagan tax cuts, for example. But the growth is not sustained over time. Instead, the rich hoard their money, as we currently see with billionaires. Less money circulates, hurting the economy. By creating empathy for the ruling class, Republican leaders have inoculated themselves from attacks by the people they are hurting the most. I’d bet most of this base doesn’t do the research.
Trump isn’t the grandmaster of divide. Reagan is.
The divide between parties and perspectives didn’t start with Trump. It started with Reagan. Reagan united the Republican Party around three positions that have become more entrenched with every decade. First, all democrats are left or radical. Second, the belief “trickle down economy” is a fair economic system, as we just discussed. Third, intermingling of politics and religion is American because America is a Christian country.
It’s easy to see Trump as the most divisive president in decades. However, Reagan set the principles, carried forward by Republicans since then. The drumbeat of consistent messaging over 40 decades has resulted in a belief system impossible to penetrate with research or data. It’s like arguing if God exists. No evidence supports God’s existence; yet, the belief thrives. Why? Because it’s based on faith. Republicans, IMHO, have faith in the principles and have been waiting for a stalwart like Trump to enforce them to prove they work. So far, they haven’t. Many Republicans have told me Trump is “better than what we had before.” They truly believe the economy is doing better under Trump than Biden even though employment and economic data show otherwise. They BELIEVE.
A belief system does not usually lead to research and data and self-validation. Contrarily, it becomes who we are, integral to our makeup, just like biology. This is why belief systems are so hard to dismantle. Usually, a catastrophic event, trauma or awakening catalyzes a change in belief.
My friend believes, for the most part, in the Republican principles. How does one challenge that this? Source data doesn’t break through, nor does video footage or other reporting mechanisms. This is why I didn’t try to wrestle my friend to the ground with facts. It would harm the friendship, something I’m not willing to do- and anyone is free to criticize me for that.
What’s wrong with the left?
Over and over again, I have heard about democrats being radical or far left. Even more, I have heard statements similar to “anything is better than a democrat.” As with supply side economics, the right has achieved another belief: there is a right and a radical left. Left is associated with socialism and communisms and with “wealth redistribution” and other ideas unpalatable to conservative leaders.
Of course we know that all democrats aren’t the same, just as all Republicans aren’t. In the past four decades, however, how many liberal news shows have popped up denigrating republicans? Not many, if any at all (I did not research this point). What can be supported with data is the rise of conservative talk radio and news.
Fox was formed when George Bush removed the FCC regulation for fair news. Fox created the “fair and balanced” mantra, thereby positioning itself as a center news source, a truth teller in a sea of biased media. It’s not. Fox has pushed so far right the syndicate can no longer call itself “news” following court challenges. This has had no effect on its viewership.
Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, numerous others become Fox-cultivated stars, spreading the gospel of Reagan’s tenets. I have listened to hours and hours of all of these commentators. My father was conservative and any car ride was punctuated by these characters. Drama leads to listeners, listener numbers lead to shows on Fox. Fox pushes the Reagan agenda. The democrats have rallied no counter offensive. And here we are.
Ironically, today, more conservative stations exist than liberal, and many so-called mainstream sources are owned by conservative billionaires. Take Bezos, for example. He owns the once liberal Washington Post. Bezos now approves op eds and refuses to take political positions challenging Trump. This has led to several highly regarded journalists leaving the newspaper. Bezos hogtied a reputable counter source to conservative belief.
In truth, we’ve lost the center. In Republican mindset, there is conservatism and far left. Democrats receive vitriol even when representing the center. In recent years, I’ve watched CNN inch to the right. Just take a look at the way they covered the 2024 election. I challenge anyone to look at the way CNN treated Kamala Harris and conclude they were tougher on Trump. Case in point: how many times was Harris’s laugh brought up?
Social echo chambers compounded the media’s right turn. Social media is owned mostly by conservative billionaires- Musk with Twitter and Zuckerburg with Facebook and Instagram. If this were a Republican fifty-year “takeover the media” strategic plan, then they have done very well in achieving their goal. Only recently are left-leaning platforms gaining ground. Meidas News, for instance, has overtaken Joe Rogan as a most-listened to podcast.
What’s wrong with the “left”? They’ve failed, spectacularly. They missed the risk, the formation, the build, the turning point, the rally- all of it. They flubbed messaging, not understanding the power of language to evoke emotion. They missed a movement.
Empathy and politics
Republican leaders also have been effective in creating empathy toward excessively wealthy citizens. Per supply side, wealthy are needed to provide jobs for American citizens. The fear is that increasing taxes will force them to leave our country and take jobs with them. This creates an emotional connection with the trickle down theory.
In fact, small businesses (fewer than 500 employees) account for 99.9% of all businesses in the US, employing around 47% of the workforce. This means the other 53% are employed by medium and large businesses. Will these businesses leave? The medium don’t have the resources to do so. The large and super large? The US remains the largest economy in the world. Few countries have looser tax laws than the US. The ones that do: Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Macau, Oman, Qatar, Hong Kong, Greenland, and Timor-Leste. Are these companies really going to move to these smaller countries with more limited economies and workforces- exempting Hong Kong, of course? Hong Kong has other problems- property expenses and over crowding, not to mention being located in Communist China.
Given this, the fear seems overstated to me. As it is, we are losing talent, science, research and so much more as the Trump administration shifts support to the military, immigration and top 1% tax cuts. Even republicans are worried about the tax cut benefits overly benefiting the rich and increasing the deficit.
I’ve covered America’s core tenet of separation of church and state before. The founding fathers may have been Christian themselves, but they established a religion-free government. Period.
Jumping the Divide
The right message machine has won. This is why we are where we are in the US today. Reagan threw it down, and Republican leaders carried it forward. Entrenchment is the word that comes to mind. When a belief system becomes so embedded in a society, only significant events can loosen the sticking power. Just in recent days, I’ve marveled how conservative politicians and media can interpret a live video differently from what I am watching on live TV. I see a British reporter narrating what’s happening in LA before being shot with a rubber bullet and a “shut the F up” by ICE. Conservative leaders criticize her for reporting. Why can’t she report? We have a free media in this country (or we purport to). What if the protesters were republicans and the military representing a democratic president. Would this be ok? I hope not.
The dissonance is what I struggle with. A lot of the far right belief- embedded in Project 2025- changes our country’s principles, values and laws. How does one support a right to choice- my friends do- and Trump, who has led systematically disassembling a women’s right to her own body? How can one believe in second amendment gun ownership and not be alarmed by school shootings? How can one claim supply side is better when jobs were up and the stock market stable during Biden? How can one support freedoms for all but watch the attack on trans rights and legal immigrants? How can one dismiss the growth of white Christian nationalism, neo-Nazis and white supremacy and not understand the racism entrenched in nearly every institution in this country? It’s so clear to me.
America also supports a right to difference in belief. So for my friends- I support their right. The question I have is, what happens when we come to where we are now, so polarized that families and friendships, and our society break apart? How do we jump the divide?
We have to move to a center. Not center from the far right. But True Center like True North, a guiding star of sensibility and fairness. We have to vote out radicals on both sides- that means Marjorie Taylor Greene and others. We have to talk about the growing poverty in our country and what to do about it. We have to talk about race. We have to talk about all of this without Project 2025 at our table because Trump and Project 2025 are breaking us apart, not bringing us together. Can’t we all see that?
What can we agree on? Give me one thing. I haven’t yet found it.
I would love to hear from you, even if, especially if, you disagree. Perhaps we can bring back the American tradition of debate.
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