A Surviving Facts Blog
I started my career as an academic. I did not complete a Ph.D., but I have two masters degrees, one considered a “terminal” degree, meaning it’s the highest level of education available in that area. I taught college writing and literature for a few years before getting married, moving across the country, and changing careers. I would have continued to teach, but I discovered professors in NY were paid the same as professors in Oklahoma. The cost of living, on the other hand, was dramatically different. My career change was a natural for me. I went from teaching writing to being a writer. Over the years, I progressed up the corporate ladder. For the most part, I have loved working with words. They are, IMHO, the most powerful tool and weapon humans have.
One advantage of an academic background is the ability to research without falling into the echo chamber. The echo chamber is dangerous for both sides of the political spectrum. Being able to research across multiple sources, to assess the validity of information and to trace that information to its original source has been a bit of a super power. It has helped me be logical and fact-based in the face of party passion. And in the past 8-9 years, we’ve seen a lot of that passion.
So today, we are going to do some myth busting on claims from both political parties. Let’s get started.
A lot of Democratic videos on Instagram and TikTok claim that the search term, “can I change my vote” surged the day after the election. The answer is actually more nuanced. The searches began before the election- many in October and a lot on Election Day morning, November 5. The search then decreased but surged again on November 7. We have no way of knowing whether this question applied to Trump or Harris. What we do know is that the states asking this question the most include Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska and Alabama- all states supporting Trump. So while we can conjecture why this happened, I found no statistical proof. Therefore, any claim Trump voters were asking this question is assumptive. Sadly, “did Joe Biden drop out” also surged during election week- I think it ranked second, shockingly. Apparently, Americans are not as informed as I assumed.
But now let’s go to the other side. The Republicans, including the Presidential-Elect, claim Trump won by an overwhelming majority, giving him a mandate for deconstructing our current government. Statistically, this is incorrect. It was not a landslide victory. Donald Trump did win the popular vote, but only by 1.5%, the fifth smallest margin since 1900, according to historian, Heather Cox Richardson (original source: Council of Foreign Relations). Last I saw, Trump received 49.9% of the popular vote while Harris received 48.3%. He would have had to receive well over 50% and at a margin greater than the current to qualify for “landslide.” Interestingly enough, other than in 2016, presidential victors have achieved percentages greater than 50%. So based on real numbers, Trump’s percentage of popular vote has been comparatively low.
Staying on the Republican side, it is true that many Trump voters did not realize the Affordable Care Act and Obamacare are the same thing. There were no reliable sources on percentage, however. Instead, it has largely been a social media post or reel and a frequent search question. The confusion over the name has been reported by multiple media sources, including media outlets outside the US. What we can say definitively is that Trump has mentioned the ACA and the desire to repeal it. The Republican Congress and Senate may very well go in this direction since they see the law as government overreach. We will need to see how this plays out since many who did vote for Trump will be impacted. What can be supported by facts is that many Americans will lose their health insurance if the law is repealed. The cost of prescription drugs also will increase as the ACA puts caps on medications such as insulin.
It’s also sadly true that many Americans in both parties did not realize that tariffs are paid by American companies and not foreign companies. Google searches on “what is a tariff” surged more than 130%. For the record, the tariffs will be paid by companies in the US needing to import certain products that will now be more expensive to purchase. That will be passed off to the consumer in the form of higher prices. Already, Walmart, Stanley Black & Decker, Columbia sportswear and Autozone have said prices will be increased because of the tariffs. Walmart just reported one of its best years ever, so announcing a price hike so early is curious to me. I am concerned that corporations, wanting to maintain their own margins, will use this as an excuse to raise prices dramatically. This is called inflation.
I’m Another confusion gap has been in the area of education. Many voters did not realize that the Department of Education pays for the costs of special education and for individual education plans (IEP) rather than the states. With definitive plans to end the DOE, these programs are at risk. This may be a particular area of concern for Trump voters. Until the department is dismantled, and the states need to pick up the gap, we won’t know the full impact. I do encourage all voters to understand what the DOE has provided and how the states will pick up the gap. Many red states have been supported by the federal government and blue states. That has allowed them to keep taxes low. Red state taxes will need to go up to cover the loss, unless red states choose not to support special ed students anymore.
Blue state taxes do support red states through redistribution of Federal taxes. This is because salaries, on average, tend to be higher in blue states, and blue states have higher taxes. With changes such as reducing $2 trillion from government spending, blue state taxes will no longer be redistributed to red states, which historically have received a disproportionate share of Federal support. Why? Red states tend towards to be poorer and have greater social challenges from rural poverty. Without blue state contributions, red states will need to raise taxes to cover the gap or slash programs. Some programs at risk include Head Start and Title I, a program which funds teachers’ salaries. Red states have benefited more from these programs than blue states, both in terms of per person funding and overall receipt of benefits. Indeed, Louisiana, a red state, receives the most for Title I. So ironically, the red states supporting Trump are likely to be more impacted by reduced Federal spending.
What about those lower taxes? We currently live under Trump’s tax system. If your taxes increased or decreased, it was that system causing it. I tried to find a common thread on the result of the 2017 tax cuts, but instead, I found wildly different analyses. Not wanting to be partisan here, I will have to do a lot more research before I can weigh in on this issue. It will take an entire blog to break down.
Many left leaning people claimed that Webster’s dictionary, after Webster purchased the dictionary, changed the definition of fascism. The claim is that fascism was originally called corporatism. This is not accurate. The words “corporate” and “corporatism” have never been part of the definition of fascism. I actually thought this was true until I researched it. I’m glad I took the time to research because relaying incorrect information is embarrassing and dangerous.
Many Americans have not processed the potential impact of mass deportations- and until it happens, we likely won’t fully know. Trump has appointed Tom Homan, his previous ICE director, as the “border czar.” Homan has already said in a Fox Sunday Morning Futures interview: “You’ve got my word. Trump comes back in January, I’ll be on his heels coming back, and I will run the biggest deportation operation this country’s ever seen.” How will the US be impacted? Farming, manual labor, restaurant kitchens and hotels all hire immigrants. If the illegals portion of these immigrants is large, these industries will lose critical infrastructure. They will need to hire anew. Will Americans go for these jobs? Will legal immigrants? I truly don’t know the answer- and I doubt many do.
Also confirmed by statistics- the amount of Americans searching for information on moving overseas has increased significantly. The political affiliation of these people is unknown. Many foreign countries are capitalizing on this trend by offering relocation support and passports after certain conditions have been met. The “digital nomad” visa is soaring in Spain, eager to attract tech talent.
My point is that claims have to be researched and verified- for both parties. In today’s echo chamber approach to information, we are likely to have our beliefs affirmed rather than challenged. This is called confirmation bias. I encourage both sides to research across sources. Don’t rely on the sources that make you comfortable. Go to sources that hold opposite views. Keep searching across numerous sources until you identify consistencies or commonalities, or until you have actual captured data.
We must elevate our thinking. Logic is a discipline that seems to have been lost- at least in the US. Understanding logical reasoning and fallacies goes a long way toward understanding and building arguments based on facts. I plan to share a blog on logical fallacies soon.
My ask of all of you is to level up. Don’t believe everything you read. Don’t assume your echo chamber is correct and the opposite view isn’t. Social media algorithms are going to support your point of view rather than challenge it. They are going to confirm your bias. Explore the opposite view.
And stop claiming there are no “facts.” Facts exist. Don’t be so cynical that you cannot trust anything that challenges you. It’s ok to have an opinion contrary to a fact. Just be brave enough to say, “I know research says X, but this is what I’m concerned about and would like to see more research on.” Not everything is a conspiracy theory. The entire government is most likely not controlled by an evil cabal. With deep fakes, it’s challenging to trust sources today. But there are ways to determine accuracy. What is the name of the source? Who is making a claim? Where can the source be verified? Are there more than one recordings of the claim? Does a historical record exist? What are the person’s credentials? Unfortunately, friends and family are not good sources.
Let’s all challenge ourselves to think better.
I would love to hear from you, even if, especially if, you disagree. Perhaps we can bring back the American tradition of civilized debate. Please like and share this blog with others. Subscribe to receive it by email and go directly to the Walk the Moon website to peruse the full collection of articles and updates.
Walk the Moon 